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美国总统特朗普政府的反华四人帮

原标题：特朗普政府的反华四人帮

来自 | 政经圈

美国特朗普政府的四人帮：国家安全顾问罗伯特·奥布莱恩、联邦调查局局长克里斯托弗·雷、司法部长威廉姆·巴尔以及国务卿麦克·蓬佩奥。

America's Gang of Four has spoken, but it doesn't understand US-China reality

The Gang of Four has now spoken. Over the past month or so, in a virulent polemic against communism reminiscent of the Red-baiting of the 1950s, four top officials of the Trump administration have delivered a series of well-orchestratedtirades against China.

“美国四人帮”如今发过声了。过去几个月里，一场充满恶意的针对共产主义的猛烈抨击，不仅令人想起了50年代的“扣赤色帽子的迫害”；在其中，特朗普政府的四位最高级别的官员发表了一系列精心策划的针对中国的激烈演说。

National security adviser Robert O'Brien initially focused on China as an ideological threat. FBI Director Christopher Wray next addressed espionage. Attorney General William Barr did the economics piece. And then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo batted cleanup and pulled it all together in a full frontal attack delivered on July 23 at the Nixon Library in California -- providing an uncomfortable bookend to the opening up of US-China relations that President Richard Nixon initiated with his historic visit to China in 1972.

国家安全顾问罗伯特·奥布莱恩最初聚焦于把中国当作意识形态威胁。联邦调查局局长克里斯托弗·雷接着谈了间谍活动。司法部长威廉姆·巴尔则在经济方面做了文章。然后国务卿麦克·蓬皮奥接了第四棒，于7月23日在加州的尼克松图书馆把这些都整合了起来，做了一场正面的攻击演讲——为理查德·尼克松总统在1972年访华所开启的中美关系划上了令人不安的句号。

In a climate where US public opinion of China is at a record low, a confident Gang of Four swungfor the fences. Unfortunately, their arguments as a whole are largely specious -- laced with conspiracy theories and devoid of fact-based analytics. This came through in three key areas: economics, the Covid-19 blame game, and the character of the US-China relationship.

在美国公众对中国看法处于历史低点的大环境下，信心满满的“美国四人帮”火力全开。不幸的是，他们作为一个整体的论点很大程度上似是而非——装饰着阴谋论却缺乏基于事实的分析。这体现在三个关键领域：经济、新冠病毒的指责游戏和中美关系的特点。

As an economist, I have long stressed the role that foreign trade plays in shaping the US economy. These four officials, all schooled and trained as lawyers, have neither the necessary background nor the experience to speak from this perspective. But, heck, this is politics, where anything goes. Even so, the disconnect in this case is staggering.

作为一名经济学家，我长期都强调对外贸易在塑造美国经济上的角色。这四名官员，都作为律师受的教育和培训，既没有从这方面发言所需的背景也没有经验。但是，糟糕的很，这就是政治，什么事情都会发生。即便如此，在这件事上的离谱还是难以置信。

The US suffers from a serious deficiency of nationwide saving. In the first quarter of 2020, the net domestic saving rate -- the combined saving of individuals, businesses, and the government sector (all adjusted for the depreciation of worn-out capital) -- stood at just 2.9% of national income. This was less than half the longer-term historical average of 7% recorded over the 45-year period from 1960 to 2005. And that was before the pandemic hit the US.

美国目前承受着严重的全国储蓄赤字。2020年第一季度里，国内净储蓄率——个人、企业及政府部门(都经消耗资本贬值调整后)加起来仅占全国收入的2.9%。这比1960到2005年期间的长期历史均值7%的一半还少。这还是疫情袭击美国之前的情况。

In the Covid-19 era, exploding federal budget deficits are overwhelming a temporary surge in household saving driven by one-off relief checks and expanded unemployment insurance. As a result, saving is headed into record negative territory. That implies a partial liquidation of the seed of future economic growth that saving provides. Lacking in saving and wanting to grow, the US imports surplus saving from abroad -- bringing overseas investment to its shores -- and as a result runs massive trade deficits to attract foreign capital.

在新冠病毒时期，联邦预算赤字的爆发压倒了由一次性救济支票和扩大的失业保险所驱动的短期的家庭储蓄激增。结果，储蓄向着创纪录的低点发展。这暗示着储蓄提供的未来经济增长的种子部分地被清算了。缺乏储蓄和增长意愿，美国从海外进口盈余——带来海外投资，作为结果产生巨大贸易赤字以吸引外国投资。

Not only is Barr clueless about how trade deficits fit into the US economy's saving puzzle, he misses the most important point of all when it comes to China: America's $346 billion bilateral merchandise trade deficit with China in 2019, while the largest portion of our overall $853 billion deficit in the trade of goods, is but one piece of a multilateral US trade imbalance with 102 countries.

司法部长威廉姆·巴尔

巴尔不仅对贸易赤字如何作为美国经济的储蓄的一环毫无了解，而且在关于中国方面，他还忽略了最重要的一点：2019年美国对中国的3460亿美元的双边贸易赤字，尽管是是我们8530亿美元总体商品贸易赤字的最大的部分，但也仅仅是美国对102个国家的贸易不平衡中的一角。

Consequently, limiting trade with China without addressing a domestic saving problem that is now going from bad to worse is like rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. America's other trading partners will simply provide higher-cost imports, thereby effectively taxing American consumers. The Gang of Four may know something about the law, but they would get a failing grade in most introductory economics courses.

结果，限制对华贸易而没有解决越来越糟的国内储蓄问题，就好比是在泰坦尼克号上重新布置躺椅一样扬汤止沸。美国的其它贸易伙伴只不过会提供更高成本的进口商品，进而有效地向美国消费者征税。“美国四人帮”或许对法律有所了解，但他们会在大多数入门经济课程中不及格。

Secondly, conspiracy theories have long been the calling card of the Trump administration, and Pompeo has led the charge in deploying these tactics when it comes to China. Earlier this year, Pompeo had been front and center in the Trump administration's effort to cast blame on China for Covid-19, touting the theory that it had spilled from a lab and accusing the Chinese government of a cover-up (allegations Beijing described as a "smear"). Similarly, in the early days of the pandemic, Pompeo was unflinching in the racist depiction of Covid-19 as the "Wuhan" or "Chinese virus."

其次，阴谋论长期以来就是特朗普政府的名片，而蓬佩奥则在部署这些战术的时候一直冲锋在前。今年早些时候，蓬佩奥始终是特朗普政府在新冠疫情上指责中国的前锋和核心，兜售理论说病毒是从试验室泄露的，而指责中国政府的掩盖行为(这一指责被北京描述为“抹黑”)。类似地，在疫情早期，蓬佩奥毫不畏缩地以种族歧视的方式将新冠病毒描述为“武汉”或“中国病毒”。

Pompeo seems to grasp the value of truth-tellers: one needs only look at his public embrace of Li Wenliang, the Wuhan ophthalmologist who voiced concern about the virus before the Chinese government was willing to let the public hear that truth. It is an act of extraordinary hypocrisy, then, that Pompeo attempted to undermine the US whistleblowers who spoke out against his boss.

蓬佩奥似乎掌握了说实话者的价值：只要看看他公开拥护李医生就够了。李医生曾在早期提出过对病毒的担忧。接着，蓬佩奥试图诋毁美国发声反对他的老板的吹哨人，这真是极虚伪的行径。

Finally, the Gang of Four paints a picture of a one-sided relationship, maintaining that China needs the United States far more than we need them. From an economic point of view, nothing could be farther from the truth. Income-constrained American consumers certainly need low-cost goods from China to make ends meet; the US Treasury will continue to need China as the largest foreign buyer of our exploding federal debt; and US companies, facing growth problems at home, need China as America's third-largest export market. In short, it is a two-way relationship of codependency, whose demise could have a very destabilizing impact on the US economy.

最后，“美国四人帮”描绘了一幅单边关系的图景，坚持说中国需要美国比美国需要他们更多。从经济视角来看，没什么比这更离谱的了。收入有限的美国消费者肯定需要来自中国的低价商品才能维持生计；美国财政部会继续需要中国作为最大的外国买家来购买我们爆炸般的联邦债务；还有美国公司，在本国面临增长问题，需要中国这个美国第三大出口市场。简而言之，这是双向的相互依赖，它的终止会对美国经济产生极大的不安定影响。

In their rush to demonize China, the Gang of Four has pursued a line of argument that is more about crass domestic politics than the articulation of a coherent grand strategy on a geopolitical chessboard. A similar approach was recommended in a document that, according to Politico, was distributed to Republican Senate candidates in April, called the "Corona Big Book."

在他们对中国匆忙的妖魔化之下，“美国四人帮”一直奉行一种论调，这种论调更多是有关蠢笨的国内政治，而不是基于地缘政治博弈的连贯宏大战略。据《政治人》杂志报道，4月份有一份文件被分发给了共和党参议员，其中建议了类似手段，这份文件被称为《新冠病毒全书》。

The basic premise was simple: As the ravages of Covid-19 were mounting in the United States, the memo counseled, "don't defend Trump ... attack China." As Covid-19-stricken America has neared the abyss, and as that defense of Trump has crumbled, the Gang of Four has taken the lead in executing a similar strategy.

基本的前提很简单：随着新冠病毒的破坏在美国上升，这份备忘录建议道，“不要为特朗普辩护...要去攻击中国。”新冠袭击的美国已如临深渊，对特朗普的维护已崩溃，“美国四人帮”首当其冲地执行了类似的策略。

History offers an ironic precedent. After the death of Mao Zedong in 1976, China's notorious Gang of Four -- radical leaders of the Cultural Revolution -- perpetuated a tumultuous period of chaos and political instability. Fixated on China, the American gang may do the same thing, if these four officials divert attention from Trump's failures to pin the blame for America's chaos on China.

历史提供了具有讽刺意味的先例。在1976年毛泽东去世后，中国臭名昭著的“四人帮”——文革的激进领导者，延续了一段混乱和政治不稳的动荡时期。如果这四名官员把对特朗普失败的关注转移到把美国的混乱怪在中国头上的话，执着于中国的“美国四人帮”可能要做同样的事情。

In the end, China's Gang of Four was arrested and put on public trial. In the United States, we have a different approach -- elections.

最终，中国的“四人帮”被逮捕并公审。在美国，我们的手段不同——选举。

编辑：高山